Summary | Prepare | Data set A - synthetic data | Synthetic data set from SD-model | Set up the guts object | Estimating parameters | Define joint log likelihood | Defining constraints on parameter values | Bayesian parameter estimation | Chain and distribution plots. | Estimated parameter values compared to the values that are used for data simulation in the ring test. | A plotting and evaluation function | Estimated parameters | Synthetic data set from IT-model | Chain and distribution plots | Estimated parameter values compared to the values that were used for data simulation. | Forecast | Setup guts object and forecast | Analyse projections | Literature

Summary | Prepare | Set up the guts object | Estimating parameters | Define joint log likelihood | Define constraints on parameter values | Guess suitable initial values | Bayesian parameter estimation | Show parameter estimation results | Chain and distribution plots. | Estimated parameter values compared to the values. | Forecast | Setup guts object and forecast | Analyse projections | Literature